Understand the Numbers - ASA & AAG
From the Parochial Report
Average Sunday Attendance (ASA)
"Attendance and Services:
Use your congregation's Service Register for the following attendance and services information.
Box 6 Average Sunday Attendance
To obtain the average Sunday attendance for the year, take the total number of persons (children and adults) who attended scheduled public Sunday services. Include Saturday evening Eucharists, if this is considered a Sunday service. Using your Service Register will be easier if you bring forward a weekly subtotal of Sunday attendance for the year. Do not include those persons who attended Church School but did not attend any part of the Sunday service (or a scheduled Sunday service for Church School students). Divide the total number of those attending all Sunday services by the number of Sundays in the report year in which services were offered and enter the average Sunday attendance in Box 6. Seasonal chapels will divide by the number of Sundays that services were held. "
Average Annual Giving (AGA)
Traditionally "pledges" and pledging units" are used when looking at annual dollars given to congregations. An alternative way to compare dollars given is by using Average Annual Giving with correlates more closely with Average Sunday Attendance. Another words one compares the dollars actually given by the people that attended services.
To compute this figure divide "Plate offerings, pledge payments & regular support" (from the Parochial Report, page 3, line 3) by the Average Sunday Attendance above. The result is the average dollar given by each person attending services. The (AGA) is typically several hundred dollars less than the average annual pledge, because more people actually attend church than pledge.
Now Use the Numbers
Using these two numbers and looking at the five preceding years it is possible to forecast five years into the future using regression analysis. The end result is an indication of what will happen if NO changes are made. As an example see the forecast created for all congregations at Stewardship by the Numbers.
